US, October 18: The upcoming midterm elections will re-elect the entire House of Representatives (representatives serve two-year terms) and one-third of the Senate (senatories serve six-year terms) of the United States. Currently, the Republican Party holds a majority in both the House and the Senate, giving incumbent President Donald Trump a significant advantage in implementing his policies.
However, negative economic developments, most notably high inflation and rising consumer prices, have led many American voters to become dissatisfied with the White House's policies, putting President Trump's Republican party at a disadvantage. This has prompted many Republican federal congressional candidates to express views that are different from the White House's current policies.
The prospect of policy change
In an interview with Thanh Nien newspaper yesterday, October 17th, Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Institute for International Studies in Japan) pointed out: "Recent opinion polls show that the Republican Party risks losing control of both the House and the Senate. President Trump is likely to blame the candidates instead of himself, arguing that the election is not about him personally or his policies, but about the quality of the candidates. If the actual results match the polls' predictions, President Trump will act more aggressively in foreign policy - an area where, under US law, the president has the most leeway to make decisions."
"This could mean he will approach North Korea, Russia, and China on terms favorable to his own immediate goals. More specifically, this scenario could include a peace agreement with Kim Jong-un; a G2-style deal between the US and China; or a major deal with Beijing regarding trade and the Taiwan issue. He could also end support for Ukraine, and even withdraw from NATO to rebuild relations with Russia. All these steps would go against the core interests of the US and its allies because they would allow China, North Korea, and Russia to expand their power and influence. For Southeast Asia, some countries could face the risk of losing their strategic autonomy in pursuing their national interests in their own way," Professor Nagy predicted.
Unforeseen consequences?
Also responding to Thanh Nien yesterday, expert Derek Grossman (Professor of Political Science and International Relations, University of Southern California, USA) assessed: "If the Republican Party somehow retains a majority in both houses of Congress, although this is a very unlikely scenario, then US foreign policy will probably not change. If the Democratic Party regains control of the House, we can expect closer scrutiny and investigations into Trump's foreign policy. It's even possible that Trump and his senior associates - such as Secretary of War Pete Hegseth - will face another impeachment process. This stems primarily from the senseless war the White House launched against Iran."
Further analysis by expert Grossman states: "If the Democrats regain control of both houses, including the Senate, then oversight from the House will be strengthened and expanded in the Senate, meaning that Trump's power will be significantly curbed. Regardless of the midterm election results , Trump will still be a 'final president' for his last two years in office. This means he will increasingly focus on foreign policy to build his legacy. Like some of his predecessors, President Trump may act without congressional consent. However, he will also take more risks and act more aggressively on the international stage, as his time is running out and his power is waning. Given what he has demonstrated and with his power diminishing, Trump's next two years in office could cause significant concern worldwide."
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper